Friday, October 10, 2008

How does the ACC Stack up

It’s been argued that comparing conferences is a silly exercise, but it provides two valuable sets of data. How would a team’s success in one conference transfer into other conferences, and thus how does that team relates to other teams in the nation. Secondly, it gives one an idea of teams schedule strength. It helps put into perspective a win over the best Sun Belt team and a loss to the worst SEC team.

In the list that follows I’ve combined the ACC with the other Bowl Championship Series conferences to get an idea of how ACC teams have performed this year. I ranked the teams by there USA today’s Sagarin rankings. These rankings don’t tell us where teams will end up, merely how they have performed so far this season. The ACC teams are shown in blue. Bold text indicates teams whose Sagarin ratings are exceptionally good, Italic text indicates teams whose scores are exceptionally bad.

A note about the rankings before we get going. I think Georgia Tech and UNC are ranked higher than Virginia Tech because they’ve each destroyed two BCS conference teams. UNC destroyed Rutgers and UConn, and Tech beat up Mississippi St. and Duke. VaTech has some good wins, at UNC and at Nebraska, but they weren’t as dominating.

ACC / Big 12 Conference
The ACC / Big 12 demonstrates a pattern you’ll see a lot as we go through the different comparisons. The ACC currently doesn’t have a team that can challenge the best of the best conferences, but it has a solid core of strong teams that can compete in any conference.

1 Oklahoma 92.87
2 Texas 90.63
3 Missouri 85.29
4 Texas Tech 85.29
5 Georgia Tech 85.11
6 Oklahoma St. 82.10
7 UNC 82.08
8 Wake Forest 81.94
9 Florida State 79.20
10 Boston College 78.97
11 Nebraska 77.04
12 Duke 76.68
13 Kansas 76.57
14 Colorado 74.04
16 Miami (FL) 73.04
17 Clemson 73.03
18 Maryland 72.05
19 Virginia 70.76
20 Kansas State 70.20
21 Baylor 69.44
22 Iowa State 66.31
23 NC State 64.18
24 Texas A&M 64.01

ACC/Big East

No one in the Big East even cracks the top half of the ACC. Take time to notice where Duke falls in these examples. They seem to be floating between “tough out” and “legitimate football team”. It’s a credit to the schedule they’ve played this season that their shut-out loss to Tech didn’t drop them further.

I think Pittsburgh and West Virginia have temporarily popped their head up for a breath before descending back down in the rankings.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.80
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 81.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Cincinnati 77.76
8 UConn 77.44
9 South Florida 76.99
10 Duke 76.68
11 Pittsburgh 74.86
12 West Virginia 73.95
13 Miami 73.04
14 Clemson 73.03
15 Maryland 72.05
16 Virginia 70.76
17 Louisville 69.14
18 NC State 64.18
19 Rutgers 63.43
20 Syracuse 59.99

ACC/Big 10

The ACC and Big 10 are really even. Penn State is a notch better than everyone else, But a cluster of ACC teams follow closely on State’s heels, followed by a group of Big 10 teams. The bottom half of the conferences space out equally.

NC State keeps showing up at the bottom of these rankings because they got stomped by and average South Carolina team and a terrible UVA team.

1 Penn State 91.14
2 Georgia Tech 85.11
3 Ohio State 84.97
4 UNC 82.08
5 Virginia Tech 81.94
6 Wake Forest 81.52
7 Michigan State 81.47
8 Northwestern 80.84
9 Wisconsin 19.28
9 Illinois 19.28
11 Florida State 79.20
12 Boston College 78.97
13 Minnesota 78.00
14 Duke 76.68
15 Iowa 74.73
16 Miami 73.04
17 Clemson 73.03
18 Maryland 72.05
19 Michigan 71.40
20 Virginia 70.76
21 Purdue 70.17
22 Indiana 66.36
23 NC State 64.18

ACC/Conference USA

Outside of Tulsa, Conference USA can’t hold a chandelle to the ACC, but they aren’t really that far behind the Big East.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.08
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 81.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Tulsa 78.29
8 Duke 76.68
9 Miami 73.04
10 Clemson 73.03
11 East Carolina 72.97
12 Maryland 72.05
13 Houston 71.43
14 Virginia 70.76
15 Rice 68.66
16 Southern Miss. 65.64
17 Marshall 65.03
18 UTEP 64.63
19 NC State 64.18
20 Memphis 64.63
21 UCF 61.33
22 Tulane 58.17
23 UAB 54.04
24 SMU 52.03

ACC/Independents

Notre Dame is average and needs to join a conference, but on the good side Navy is also average.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.08
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 82.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Notre Dame 77.47
8 Duke 76.68
9 Navy 75.13
10 Miami 73.04
11 Clemson 73.03
12 Maryland 72.05
13 Virginia 70.76
14 NC State 64.18
15 W. Kentucky 61.14
16 Army 53.32

ACC/MAC

Man, Ball State has run up a good resume in the early goings. They beat Navy by 12 and Indiana by 22. I think they’re strength of schedule will drop when they play the rest of their conference.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 Ball State 82.68
3 UNC 82.08
4 Virginia Tech 81.94
5 Wake Forest 81.52
6 Florida State 79.20
7 Boston College 78.97
8 Duke 78.97
9 Miami 73.04
10 Clemson 73.03
11 Maryland 72.05
12 Virginia 70.87
13 W Michigan 69.85
14 Akron 68.55
15 Bowling Green 68.17
16 NIU 68.06
17 Buffalo 67.37
18 C Michigan 67.21
19 NC State 64.18
20 Temple 64.35
21 Toledo 59.29
22 Ohio 56.73
23 E Michigan 55.73
24 Kent State 55.23
25 Miami (OH) 54.65

ACC/Mountain West

The Mountain West has three strong teams at the top that have performed as well as anyone this year, and then a huge drop off. Air Force is the only other team worth noting.

If Virginia Tech keeps winning, I think they’ll start climbing the ratings as the East Carolina loss means less and less.


1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 Utah 84.35
3 TCU 84.09
4 BYU 83.47
5 UNC 82.08
6 Virginia Tech 81.94
7 Wake Forest 81.52
8 Florida State 79.20
9 Boston College 76.68
10 Duke 76.68
11 Air Force 73.73
12 Miami 73.04
13 Clemson 73.03
14 Maryland 72.05
15 Virginia 70.76
16 New Mexico 68.04
17 UNLV 66.90
18 Colorado State 65.79
19 NC State 64.18
20 San Diego State 57.96
21 Wyoming 55.37

ACC/PAC 10

The ACC stacks up pretty evenly with the PAC 10. Sure no one can touch USC, but overall the ACC is a little better overall up top, and the two Washington teams are terrible. Really bad.

1 USC 94.11
2 Georgia Tech 85.11
3 Cal 83.36
4 UNC 82.08
5 Virginia Tech 81.94
6 Wake Forest 81.52
7 Oregon State 81.21
7 Oregon 81.21
9 Florida State 79.20
10 Arizona 79.04
11 Boston College 78.97
12 Duke 76.68
13 Stanford 74.14
14 Miami 73.04
15 Clemson 73.03
16 Maryland 72.05
17 Arizona State 71.75
18 Virginia 70.76
19 UCLA 68.29
20 NC State 64.18
21 Washington 62.97
22 Washington State 55.93

ACC/SEC

The SEC is better than the ACC, but they aren’t as deep as everyone keeps saying. Arkansas, Mississippi St, and Tennessee have played terrible, and Auburn and South Carolina would be middle of the road teams in any conference. On top of That LSU, hasn’t been challenged at all, and Kentucky has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and that includes a game against a very good Alabama.

On the other hand, Georgia, Alabama and Vandy have played some good teams and they’ve performed well. It’s hard to say where they will end up, but they are fore real

1 Alabama 92.25
2 Florida 86.76
3 Georgia 86.10
4 Georgia Tech 85.11
5 LSU 84.84
6 Vanderbilt 83.30
7 Kentucky 82.61
8 UNC 82.08
9 Virginia Tech 81.94
10 Wake Forest 81.52
11 Florida State 79.20
12 Auburn 79.08
13 Boston College 78.97
14 South Carolina 77.21
15 Duke 76.68
16 Ole Miss 74.42
17 Miami 73.04
18 Clemson 73.03
19 Tennessee 72.19
20 Maryland 72.05
21 Virginia 70.76
22 Arkansas 65.11
23 Mississippi St. 64.23
24 NC State 64.18

ACC/Sun Belt

If The Troy/LSU game hadn’t been rained out, Troy would be the toughest team LSU has played to date. The Sun Belt should be kicked out of the Bowl Championship Subdivision.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.08
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 81.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Duke 76.68
8 Troy 73.54
9 Miami 73.04
10 Clemson 73.03
11 Maryland 72.05
12 Virginia 70.76
13 Middle Tenn. St. 65.30
14 Arkansas St. 64.49
15 NC State 64.18
16 FIU 63.57
17 Louisiana-La 63.57
18 Florida Atlantic 60.87
19 Louisiana-Mo 52.11
20 North Texas 47.19

ACC/WAC

Ladies and Gentlemen, your BCS buster, Boise St!

1 Boise State 85.30
2 Georgia Tech 85.11
3 UNC 82.08
4 Virginia Tech 81.94
5 Wake Forest 81.52
6 Florida State 79.20
7 Boston College 78.97
8 Duke 76.68
9 Clemson 73.03
9 Fresno St. 73.03
11 Maryland 72.05
12 Virginia 70.76
13 San Jose St. 67.84
14 Hawaii 67.74
15 NC State 64.18
16 Louisiana Tech 61.84
17 New Mexico St. 61.11
18 Utah State 59.09
19 Idaho 46.32

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