Haiku for a friends birthday

Recently a friend asked us to create Haiku for her boy friends birthday. Below is the one we submitted.

There is a river
Mink lined with first class service
Not unlike this one

What I know about Clemson this week

Willy Korn will make his first.  He runs better than Harper, and Clemson's offensive line has struggled this year, so it's not crazy to start an experienced QB against Tech this week, but Willy would have to be the next Vince Young for it to make  huge difference.  

Cullen Harper isn't happy about being benched, and neither are some of his teammates.  CJ Spiller pulled a hamstring last week.  Then again, he was jumping up and down on the side line when Clemson took the lead against Wake.  I'll call CJ questionable, and leave it at that.

Oh yeah, they fired the head coach.

Oh yeah, they also fired the offensive coordinator

Oh yeah, Dabo Swinney has never been a head coach.  He was the wide receiver's coach last week.

Dabo and former tight-end's coach Billy Napier will be making the offensive calls this week.  Neither of them have ever done this.

Dabo promoted to graduate assistants to coach the wide receivers and tight ends.

It took Dabo two days to organize his staff after the Bowden firing.  That's about as quickly as Clemson folk could hope for, but the fact remains, Clemson missed out on two days of practice in which they would have focused on the triple option.   

Two, two-and-a-half, days is not a lot of time, even for an experienced staff, which this is not.

It seems like the Tigers house is a mess, and pulling together enough for a win is a tall order.  Of course, if Tech gives Clemson a reason to believe early, things could get tough.

New Shapes

Professors have said, "if you can't draw a curve, you can't design a curve". With that in mind, I've been working on my 3-D moddeling skills. As a source of insperatin to modivate me to learn, I've been applying these newly learned skills to an old idea. A pre-fabricated, strip housing project. I'm not done with it yet, but as you can see the forms are differnet to say the least. I haven't forgone my desire to make formal inovation a lower priority. Sometimes, formal invention comes out of the process as a result of tackling different issues. If it works, it works. I'll have more to show later

What's Your Nickle Worth

In football, it's easier to determine the value of an offensive player than a defensive player from the box score. Chances are the guys with the most yards and touchdowns are the best players, but its more difficult to determine the value of a defensive player. Who’s more valuable, a defensive end with a few sacks, or a linebacker who makes tons of tackles all over the field? The problem is that the kinds of stats defensive players accumulate are impacted by the position they play. So, I’ve been working on a mathematical formula for calculating a defensive player’s value to a team regardless of position. I figured I could do this by applying a number value to every stat an individual player makes. I’m working from the box scores, so I’m not able to account for when and under what conditions a stat is recorded.

The first thing I wanted to do was select one stat to be the base stat against which all other stats would be measured. The goal of every defense is to get the offense off the field. There is only one play an individual defender can make to get the offense off the field on any down. That play is an interception. So I made an interception worth 10 points. The other statistics get values in relation to how they add to the defenses abilities to get stops. Those Values are as follows, with explanations..

Interception - 10 points

Forced Fumble – 6 points
Recovered Fumble – 4 points
A fumble recovery is worth as much as an interception, but it has to be divided between two players. Recovering a fumble is pure luck (per football prospectus) while forcing a fumble is a skill. So I’ve weighed the value of a fumble recovery to give more points to the player who created the fumble.

Pass Break Up - 3.5 points
The importance of sacks, tackles for loss, and incomplete passes is that they force the offense into situations that have a below average chance of producing a first down, and thus a higher chance of getting the offense of the field. So I calculated by the value of a pass break-up by looking at how an incomplete pass affects an offense’s ability to get a first down. I figures a pass defended is an incompletion forced by one player, and it doesn’t matter if the quarterback threw the ball out of bounds or if a cornerback knocked a pass away. I looked at every time Georgia Tech forced an incomplete pass and the offense failed to get a first down afterwards and divided by the number of times an incomplete pass was forced and the offense did get a first down latter. I then multiplied that number by 10, the points assigned for an interception, to get something relevant.

Quarter Back Hurries – 3.5 points
Same reasoning as above, only this time I’m attributing the incompletion to the quarterback being rushed by a defender.

Sacks – 7.9 points
I used the same process to calculate the value of sacks, as I did for pass break-ups. I divided the number of stops (failures to get a first down) after a sack, by the number of first downs recorded after a sack, and multiplied by 10.

Tackles for Loss – 8.5 points
I used the same process as I did for sacks. I’m not sure why this number is higher than the one for sacks. Maybe it’s because there are more opportunities for TFL’s on second and third down, and the offense has fewer opportunities to recover from a loss on those downs.
Tackles – 1.9

I divided the total number of Tech tackles by the total number of stops Tech made. For stops, I considered anything that wasn’t a touchdown a stop. Even if the offense kicked a field goal, Tech’s defense stopped them from achieving their ultimate goal. Counting field goal attempts as stops also doesn’t penalize the defense for playing well when the offense or special teams put them in bad fireld position.

Two things I’d like to be able to do, but can’t do from the box score are track the impact of a player drawing double-teams, and the impact of a cornerback shutting down his side of the field.

To track the impact of double teams, you would need to note each time a defensive lineman or line backer was blocked by two players, and then note the number of times a teammate recorded a stat other than a simple tackle (as a tackle is the result of almost every play). Then divided the later by the former and multiply by 10 to get a point total.

To track the impact of safeties and corner backs on opposing offenses you’d have to chart the percentage of times a team throws the ball into their area, find the inverse of that percentage and multiply by 3.5. This would increase the value of each pass defended for players offenses avoid and decrease the value of each pass defended for player’s offenses attack.

It’s not perfect, but check out the results and tell me if you think they are valuable. To be eligible a player has to have recorded a stat in at least three games.

The Black Watch
1 Derrick Morgan 152.3
2 Michael Johnson 115.8
3 Morgan Burnett 112.8
4 Vance Walker 103.2
5 Sedric Griffin 91.3
6 Darryl Richard 76.9

Honor Guard
7 Jahai Word-Daniels 76.2

Chosen Men
8 Mario Butler 59.8
9 Tony Clark 57.4

Enlisted Men
10 Kyle Jackson 55.1
11 Jason Peters 48.3
12 Rashaad Reid 47.9
13 Dominique Reese 47.5
14 Cooper Taylor 44.4
15 Travis Chambers 27.0
16 Jake Blackwood 23.4
17 Oshon Tango 19.3

Active Reserves
19 Brad Jefferson 15.2
20 Steve Sylvester 14.3
21 James Liipfert 12.4
22 Albert Rocker 12.3

National Guard
23 Anthony Barnes 9.5
24 Mario Edwards 8.8
25 Michael Peterson 7.6

Home Defense
26 Shane Bowen 6.7
27 Elris Anyaibe 6.7

How does the ACC Stack up

It’s been argued that comparing conferences is a silly exercise, but it provides two valuable sets of data. How would a team’s success in one conference transfer into other conferences, and thus how does that team relates to other teams in the nation. Secondly, it gives one an idea of teams schedule strength. It helps put into perspective a win over the best Sun Belt team and a loss to the worst SEC team.

In the list that follows I’ve combined the ACC with the other Bowl Championship Series conferences to get an idea of how ACC teams have performed this year. I ranked the teams by there USA today’s Sagarin rankings. These rankings don’t tell us where teams will end up, merely how they have performed so far this season. The ACC teams are shown in blue. Bold text indicates teams whose Sagarin ratings are exceptionally good, Italic text indicates teams whose scores are exceptionally bad.

A note about the rankings before we get going. I think Georgia Tech and UNC are ranked higher than Virginia Tech because they’ve each destroyed two BCS conference teams. UNC destroyed Rutgers and UConn, and Tech beat up Mississippi St. and Duke. VaTech has some good wins, at UNC and at Nebraska, but they weren’t as dominating.

ACC / Big 12 Conference
The ACC / Big 12 demonstrates a pattern you’ll see a lot as we go through the different comparisons. The ACC currently doesn’t have a team that can challenge the best of the best conferences, but it has a solid core of strong teams that can compete in any conference.

1 Oklahoma 92.87
2 Texas 90.63
3 Missouri 85.29
4 Texas Tech 85.29
5 Georgia Tech 85.11
6 Oklahoma St. 82.10
7 UNC 82.08
8 Wake Forest 81.94
9 Florida State 79.20
10 Boston College 78.97
11 Nebraska 77.04
12 Duke 76.68
13 Kansas 76.57
14 Colorado 74.04
16 Miami (FL) 73.04
17 Clemson 73.03
18 Maryland 72.05
19 Virginia 70.76
20 Kansas State 70.20
21 Baylor 69.44
22 Iowa State 66.31
23 NC State 64.18
24 Texas A&M 64.01

ACC/Big East

No one in the Big East even cracks the top half of the ACC. Take time to notice where Duke falls in these examples. They seem to be floating between “tough out” and “legitimate football team”. It’s a credit to the schedule they’ve played this season that their shut-out loss to Tech didn’t drop them further.

I think Pittsburgh and West Virginia have temporarily popped their head up for a breath before descending back down in the rankings.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.80
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 81.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Cincinnati 77.76
8 UConn 77.44
9 South Florida 76.99
10 Duke 76.68
11 Pittsburgh 74.86
12 West Virginia 73.95
13 Miami 73.04
14 Clemson 73.03
15 Maryland 72.05
16 Virginia 70.76
17 Louisville 69.14
18 NC State 64.18
19 Rutgers 63.43
20 Syracuse 59.99

ACC/Big 10

The ACC and Big 10 are really even. Penn State is a notch better than everyone else, But a cluster of ACC teams follow closely on State’s heels, followed by a group of Big 10 teams. The bottom half of the conferences space out equally.

NC State keeps showing up at the bottom of these rankings because they got stomped by and average South Carolina team and a terrible UVA team.

1 Penn State 91.14
2 Georgia Tech 85.11
3 Ohio State 84.97
4 UNC 82.08
5 Virginia Tech 81.94
6 Wake Forest 81.52
7 Michigan State 81.47
8 Northwestern 80.84
9 Wisconsin 19.28
9 Illinois 19.28
11 Florida State 79.20
12 Boston College 78.97
13 Minnesota 78.00
14 Duke 76.68
15 Iowa 74.73
16 Miami 73.04
17 Clemson 73.03
18 Maryland 72.05
19 Michigan 71.40
20 Virginia 70.76
21 Purdue 70.17
22 Indiana 66.36
23 NC State 64.18

ACC/Conference USA

Outside of Tulsa, Conference USA can’t hold a chandelle to the ACC, but they aren’t really that far behind the Big East.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.08
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 81.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Tulsa 78.29
8 Duke 76.68
9 Miami 73.04
10 Clemson 73.03
11 East Carolina 72.97
12 Maryland 72.05
13 Houston 71.43
14 Virginia 70.76
15 Rice 68.66
16 Southern Miss. 65.64
17 Marshall 65.03
18 UTEP 64.63
19 NC State 64.18
20 Memphis 64.63
21 UCF 61.33
22 Tulane 58.17
23 UAB 54.04
24 SMU 52.03

ACC/Independents

Notre Dame is average and needs to join a conference, but on the good side Navy is also average.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.08
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 82.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Notre Dame 77.47
8 Duke 76.68
9 Navy 75.13
10 Miami 73.04
11 Clemson 73.03
12 Maryland 72.05
13 Virginia 70.76
14 NC State 64.18
15 W. Kentucky 61.14
16 Army 53.32

ACC/MAC

Man, Ball State has run up a good resume in the early goings. They beat Navy by 12 and Indiana by 22. I think they’re strength of schedule will drop when they play the rest of their conference.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 Ball State 82.68
3 UNC 82.08
4 Virginia Tech 81.94
5 Wake Forest 81.52
6 Florida State 79.20
7 Boston College 78.97
8 Duke 78.97
9 Miami 73.04
10 Clemson 73.03
11 Maryland 72.05
12 Virginia 70.87
13 W Michigan 69.85
14 Akron 68.55
15 Bowling Green 68.17
16 NIU 68.06
17 Buffalo 67.37
18 C Michigan 67.21
19 NC State 64.18
20 Temple 64.35
21 Toledo 59.29
22 Ohio 56.73
23 E Michigan 55.73
24 Kent State 55.23
25 Miami (OH) 54.65

ACC/Mountain West

The Mountain West has three strong teams at the top that have performed as well as anyone this year, and then a huge drop off. Air Force is the only other team worth noting.

If Virginia Tech keeps winning, I think they’ll start climbing the ratings as the East Carolina loss means less and less.


1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 Utah 84.35
3 TCU 84.09
4 BYU 83.47
5 UNC 82.08
6 Virginia Tech 81.94
7 Wake Forest 81.52
8 Florida State 79.20
9 Boston College 76.68
10 Duke 76.68
11 Air Force 73.73
12 Miami 73.04
13 Clemson 73.03
14 Maryland 72.05
15 Virginia 70.76
16 New Mexico 68.04
17 UNLV 66.90
18 Colorado State 65.79
19 NC State 64.18
20 San Diego State 57.96
21 Wyoming 55.37

ACC/PAC 10

The ACC stacks up pretty evenly with the PAC 10. Sure no one can touch USC, but overall the ACC is a little better overall up top, and the two Washington teams are terrible. Really bad.

1 USC 94.11
2 Georgia Tech 85.11
3 Cal 83.36
4 UNC 82.08
5 Virginia Tech 81.94
6 Wake Forest 81.52
7 Oregon State 81.21
7 Oregon 81.21
9 Florida State 79.20
10 Arizona 79.04
11 Boston College 78.97
12 Duke 76.68
13 Stanford 74.14
14 Miami 73.04
15 Clemson 73.03
16 Maryland 72.05
17 Arizona State 71.75
18 Virginia 70.76
19 UCLA 68.29
20 NC State 64.18
21 Washington 62.97
22 Washington State 55.93

ACC/SEC

The SEC is better than the ACC, but they aren’t as deep as everyone keeps saying. Arkansas, Mississippi St, and Tennessee have played terrible, and Auburn and South Carolina would be middle of the road teams in any conference. On top of That LSU, hasn’t been challenged at all, and Kentucky has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and that includes a game against a very good Alabama.

On the other hand, Georgia, Alabama and Vandy have played some good teams and they’ve performed well. It’s hard to say where they will end up, but they are fore real

1 Alabama 92.25
2 Florida 86.76
3 Georgia 86.10
4 Georgia Tech 85.11
5 LSU 84.84
6 Vanderbilt 83.30
7 Kentucky 82.61
8 UNC 82.08
9 Virginia Tech 81.94
10 Wake Forest 81.52
11 Florida State 79.20
12 Auburn 79.08
13 Boston College 78.97
14 South Carolina 77.21
15 Duke 76.68
16 Ole Miss 74.42
17 Miami 73.04
18 Clemson 73.03
19 Tennessee 72.19
20 Maryland 72.05
21 Virginia 70.76
22 Arkansas 65.11
23 Mississippi St. 64.23
24 NC State 64.18

ACC/Sun Belt

If The Troy/LSU game hadn’t been rained out, Troy would be the toughest team LSU has played to date. The Sun Belt should be kicked out of the Bowl Championship Subdivision.

1 Georgia Tech 85.11
2 UNC 82.08
3 Virginia Tech 81.94
4 Wake Forest 81.52
5 Florida State 79.20
6 Boston College 78.97
7 Duke 76.68
8 Troy 73.54
9 Miami 73.04
10 Clemson 73.03
11 Maryland 72.05
12 Virginia 70.76
13 Middle Tenn. St. 65.30
14 Arkansas St. 64.49
15 NC State 64.18
16 FIU 63.57
17 Louisiana-La 63.57
18 Florida Atlantic 60.87
19 Louisiana-Mo 52.11
20 North Texas 47.19

ACC/WAC

Ladies and Gentlemen, your BCS buster, Boise St!

1 Boise State 85.30
2 Georgia Tech 85.11
3 UNC 82.08
4 Virginia Tech 81.94
5 Wake Forest 81.52
6 Florida State 79.20
7 Boston College 78.97
8 Duke 76.68
9 Clemson 73.03
9 Fresno St. 73.03
11 Maryland 72.05
12 Virginia 70.76
13 San Jose St. 67.84
14 Hawaii 67.74
15 NC State 64.18
16 Louisiana Tech 61.84
17 New Mexico St. 61.11
18 Utah State 59.09
19 Idaho 46.32

Plan (result of vision conference

Below is the plan we generated from the vision conference. I originally just wanted to provide the owner with the booklet. The reason for this is that I believe owner's hire us to provide a service, and the best way to provide good service is to work closely with the owner and treat them as an equal partner in the process, to combine their knowledge of their wants and needs with our knowledge of how to fit that into a building. The drawings which we provide the client with at the end of the project are merely the record of the partnership. How can we design something for an owner without their input? But I finally came to the conclusion that owners want to see a plan, no matter how little we know about their needs, or how much it will change before the design is completed. It gives them something to be excited about.

This project is a renovation of a bungalow. The unchanged parts of the house are shown in grey. The front door is at the top of the page. The additions are shown in red and rendered in material. We removed two walls from the middle of the house to create a great room We then opened up the stairs and added some book shelves and storage. Our final step was to add a kitchen addition and screen porch to the rear of the house, and design a garden for vegitables.

Below is a rendering of what the renovation and addition may look like from the front of the house. Bookshelves and the open stairs are on the right. An existing fire place is on the left. The two sets of wood beams and columns indicate where we removed existing walls. We also added a new window to the left. Just outside the window is a planter for aromatic plants. The owner's told us in the vision session that they love to garden, love fresh, green smells and love opening the house to fresh air. The bar in back separates the new kitchen from the house. The bar lies on the point where the back of the house used to be.

In retrospect the rendering was a mistake. It fixes an image to firmly in the owners mind. This early in the process we only have ideas, not finished forms. Opening the stairs is an idea. Removing some walls and replacing them with a new structure is just an idea. The forms these ideas end up taken could be very different from what is shown in this rendering.

Vision Conference Book

Below are the pages from the booklet we generated for the client. It's the end product of vision conference. It serves two purposes. It highlights the key points that were identified in vision conference, and its the first attempt to put into visual form those points. The booklet has a simple layout. A central square on the page slowly evolves from a solid object on a white background into a void in the middle of a solid field. The final page is a conceptual diagram of the home renovation. The interior of the box pushes out into its surroundings blurring the distinction between object and field. In the same way, the house design would open up into the yard and blur the difference between inside and outside. During the conference the client noted that they liked the colors in one of the pictures we had mounted under the heading "Textures". That picture is used on the cover, the boxes on the following pages are filled with color taken from that image.