Georgia is 15th in the country against the run, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll have much success against Tech’s unique offense. After all, the triple-option isn’t a standard run play. Below is a list of top 25 rush defense Tech has already played this year, and how they fared against the triple option
7th Boston College – 95.8 y.p.g., against Tech, 162 yards, 2 touchdowns
19th Virginia Tech – 106.7 y.p.g., against Tech, 199 Yards, 2 touchdowns
21st Florida State – 109.6 y.p.g., against Tech, 288 yards, 4 touchdowns
The Boston College results came early in the season. It was Tech’s second game, and its first game on the road. Given those conditions, it represents a pretty solid effort. Even so, the Florida State game is more indicative of where the Tech rushing game is at this point in the season. Tech played Florida State, UNC, and Miami to end their ACC season. Tech had 326 yards rushing and a touchdown against UNC, and against Miami they rushed for 472 yards. Clearly the rushing game is cruising at a level above their lofty #4 rating.
Georgia Ranks 15th against the rush, but a lot of that ranking was built on good games against bad rushing offense early in the season. As you can see from the chart below Georgia gave up more rushing yards per game during the second half of the season when they began facing better rushing teams. That coincides with Tech’s rushing game finding its pace.
In the first six games, Georgia gave up an average of 52 yards a game, but that included a FCS team. The BCS subdivision teams averaged 82nd in rushing offense. Over the second half of the season, Georgia gave up an average of 167.4 yards per game. The opponents averaged 50th in rushing offense in the country. No team Georgia has faced has ranked as high as Georgia Tech in rushing offense.
Georgia Tech’s rushing offense is peaking, while Georgia’s defense has faltered late in the season against good, but inferior to Tech, rushing teams.
WHEN UGA RUNS THE BALLGeorgia will be the 3rd best rushing team Tech has played this year, behind Florida State and Virginia Tech. Georgia’s running game has been very consistent and very good this year. Knowshon Moreno is a talented back who ricochets away from defenders once he makes it into the secondary. He could very easily end up being one of the pre season contenders for the Heisman Trophy next year. Fullback Brannon Southerland does a tremendous job clearing the way for Moreno, and the two of them have been a big reason why Georgia ranks as high as 51 in rushing yards despite a depleted offensive line.
Tech’s defense has been good but not spectacular. They are 29th in the country against the run, behind Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, and LSU. At times this year the linebackers suffered spells of poor tackling. Late in the season this was exacerbated by fatigue and injuries against Virginia, Florida State, and UNC. The injuries and fatigue should be less of a factor against Georgia. The jackets will have played one game in the last 21 days when they face UGA, and that one game was a big victory over Miami in which many of the starters got to rest in the second half.
Georgia has played against statistically good rush defenses, but the numbers are slightly inflated because the SEC’s offenses are down this year. Tech’s defensive line will likely dominate UGA’s offensive line, and should be able to make plays in the backfield, but the linebackers have to step up and keep Moreno from breaking long runs.
WHEN TECH PASSES THE BALLAll though Tech’s offense will never be a pass heavy offense, Coach Paul Johnson would like to throw the ball more than the Jackets have this year. The offensive line hasn’t been up to the task of pass protecting on a consistent basis. The Jackets have gone to the pass under two sets of circumstances. Either they relying on the rush to draw eight and nine players into box and then go deep to Bebe Thomas. Thomas is a big athletic player who can dominate most of corner backs. Tech has also used the pass sparingly to loosen up defenses early in games. Couch Paul Johnson used a few simple eight to ten yard routs to back teams of the line in the Boston College and Miami games.
Georgia’s defensive line hasn’t produced much pressure this year, which should allow the Jackets a few opportunities to pass when they chose to. They just need to watch out for Rennie Currie on the blitz.
WHEN GEORGIA PASSES THE BALL
Matthew Stafford has the arm to make all the throws, and he’s been an excellent complement to Moreno, but his numbers are difficult to evaluate because the SEC is generally down this year. Quarterback play has been particularly bad this year, and poor quarterback play has inflated the numbers of the SEC’s pass defenses. Seven SEC Teams Rank in the top 25 for least yards passing allowed, but most of those teams are in the bottom half of the SEC.
Pass D Rank Team Sagarin Rating
2 South Carolina 32
26 Auburn 69
14 Mississippi State 97
77 LSU 34
16 Vanderbilt 45
64 Arkansas 81
43 Kentucky 52
Georgia played five of these teams, and none of them rank in the top 25 in Sagarin Ranting. Its reasonable to assume that Mississippi State, Auburn, and South Carolina's strong ranking against the pass is due in part to the fact that they are poor against the run.
Rush D Rank Team
35 South Carolina
45 Auburn
65 Mississippi State
15 LSU
63 Vanderbilt
91 Arkansas
50 Kentucky
Only one of those teams are in the top 25 in rush defense. While Stafford and his Wide Receivers, AJ Green and Mohamad Masoquoi, are very talented their numbers have been boosted by playing against some weak teams.
They will face a Georgia Tech defense that has the 10th most interceptions in the country, has the 9th most tackles for loss, and the 16th most sacks in the country. The interceptions and sacks are related. The Tech defensive line forces quarterbacks to make passes under duress, this leads to mistakes which the secondary has taken advantage of. All of this leads to a team that is 21st in the country in passing defense.
The only team that had a successful passing game against the Jackets was UVA who utilized passes to the running back to take advantage of Georgia Tech’s weakness at the linebacker position, but Georgia hasn’t thrown much to their backs. It will be interesting to see if they make that adjustment.
Passing for Georgia will likely be a high-risk activity with their beaten up offensive line. Georgia Tech has consistently gotten to the quarterback all year, and their defensive backs have played better than most people care to admit.
TURNOVERSGeorgia Tech has turned the ball over a lot this year. They have lost 18 fumbles which ties them for 117th in the country. That number is slightly inflated because they run so much, but it’s impossible to deny that they have been generous this year. Georgia Tech has thrown 3 interceptions.
Georgia on the other hand has fewer turnovers. They’ve only fumbled 7 times, and thrown 8 interceptions, for a total of 15 turnovers.
Yet, Georgia Tech has a better turnover margin thanks to their defense. The Jackets have forced 27 turnovers, while Georgia has force only 11 turnovers. This gives Tech a turnover margin of +.36 on the year, and Georgia a turnover margin of -.09. By virtue of their defense, the Jackets hold the advantage in the turnover department.
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